LONDON/HOUSTON/SINGAPORE, Sept. 14, 2026 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE

Wood Mackenzie | www.woodmac.com

LONDON/HOUSTON/SINGAPORE, 14 September 2026 – New Wood Mackenzie research modelled three EU domestic gas production scenarios to 2050 and found a cumulative gap of close to 1,000 bcm between the low and high cases, with the outcome hinging on fiscal stability, permitting reform, and exploration success in the Black Sea and East Mediterranean.

Europe's options on gas are narrowing. Without new field investment, the EU will import over 98% of its gas by 2050. That is the central finding of a new Wood Mackenzie report, What could domestic gas do for EU energy security? The gap between doing nothing and maximising domestic production potential is roughly three years of current EU gas demand. The policy and investment decisions made in the next five years will determine which side of that gap the bloc lands on.

Europe's import dependency runs deep. The EU imports 85% of the gas it consumes today. That share stays broadly flat through the early 2030s. However, with Norwegian supply expected to come off plateau in the 2030s, North African volumes facing domestic demand pressure and Russian pipeline gas being phased out, LNG is filling the gap. Its share of EU supply could rise from around 40% today to 63% by 2050. Of that, 77% is expected to come from the United States.

Wood Mackenzie modelled three scenarios for EU member states with material upstream sectors.

• The low case is the baseline. No new field investments. Production falls from 43 bcm in 2028 to just 2 bcm by 2050. LNG covers the shortfall.
• The mid case reflects current policy and investment levels. Production holds near 40 bcm until 2038, adding 330 bcm, or 70% more than the low case. Yet domestic gas never covers more than 17% of demand across the period. Sustaining even that plateau requires replacing more than half the current producing base. The EU's exposure to the global market is left largely unchanged.
• The high case is the only scenario that materially changes the EU's position. With fiscal terms stabilised, permitting accelerated, and corporate constraints resolved, production reaches 77 bcm by 2042, meeting 38% of demand. Cumulative output reaches 1,400 bcm, displacing the equivalent of 615 LNG cargoes a year against the low case.

Exploration drives most of that upside. Of the 680 bcm separating the low and high cases, exploration accounts for 70%. The Black Sea and East Mediterranean hold 70% of that yet-to-find volume. Greece alone accounts for a third, as Energean and ExxonMobil are preparing to drill the country’s first deepwater exploration well in 2027.

Cyprus sits outside these numbers. Wood Mackenzie modelled it separately as a maximum re-import potential of up to 340 bcm via Egypt, a 24% uplift on the high case. Not all of that volume is expected to reach Europe.

'The mid case is often where expectations settle, but it changes very little for the EU's strategic position, said Lewis Lawrence, Senior Research Analyst, Europe Upstream at Wood Mackenzie. “Sustaining today's output requires enormous investment just to stand still. The real question is whether governments are willing to create the conditions that make the high case possible, because the window is narrowing.'

Key Details

• Three scenarios to 2050: Without new investment, EU imports exceed 98% of demand by 2050. Current investment levels hold production near 40 bcm to 2038 but leave strategic import exposure largely unchanged. Only the high case materially shifts the EU's position, with production reaching 77 bcm by 2042, meeting 38% of demand, and displacing 615 LNG cargoes a year.
• Exploration drives the upside: The gap between the low and high cases is close to 1,000 bcm; exploration accounts for 680 bcm of that, with 70% concentrated in the Black Sea and East Mediterranean. Greece alone holds a third of the yet-to-find potential.
• Cyprus is additional upside: Modelled separately at a maximum re-import potential of 340 bcm via Egypt, a 24% uplift on the high case. Wood Mackenzie does not expect all volumes to reach Europe.
• Cost competitiveness: US LNG delivered to northwest Europe breaks even 68% above Neptun Deep gas and 96% above new Norwegian gas.
• Emissions case: Domestic gas carries a fraction of the emissions intensity of imported LNG. In the Netherlands, LNG provides 50% of gas supply but 88% of overall supply emissions intensity.

Background

European fiscal terms are competitive on headline attractiveness but repeatedly undermined by instability, with the EU's temporary solidarity contribution, introduced in 2022, still subject to legal challenge today. Policy diverges sharply across the bloc. East Mediterranean and Black Sea nations are competing to attract explorers. Denmark, France and Spain have legislated end dates for production and closed the door to new licences. Domestic gas will not make the EU self-sufficient, but stable fiscal terms and frontier exploration success could meaningfully reduce LNG reliance.

 

-ENDS-

For further information please contact Wood Mackenzie’s media relations team:

Chris Boba
+44 7408 841129
Chris.Boba@woodmac.com 

Mark Thomton
+1 630 881 6885
Mark.thomton@woodmac.com

Hla Myat Mon
+65 8533 8860  
hla.myatmon@woodmac.com 

Angelica Juarez
angelica.juarez@woodmac.com

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Chris Boba Wood Mackenzie 6308816885 chris.boba@woodmac.com